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Market comment

Dr. Reimer Mohr, Hanse Agro GmbH

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Market comment 2017

May 2017

The old doctrine "supply and demand determine the price" has been decisive for the development on the rye market. 2 months before the new harvest, rye is almost sold out in some parts of Germany. Along the River Rhine the rye price free mill of 180 €/t and in Southern Bavaria with 174 €/t has overtaken the price of bread wheat. In the eastern German production regions, the price ex station has passed beyond the 150 €/t threshold.

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April 2017

The grain-marketing season 2016/2017 is coming to an end. In many establishment farmers are planning sales of remaining batches. Some farmers are still speculating for the scarce supply situation of regional processors until the new harvest 2017. The supply situation within the Rye Belt is varied. While supplies will continue to increase in the Eastern Rye Belt following an excellent 2016 harvest, in the Western Rye Belt stores will be cleared by summer after the weak 2016 harvest.

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March 2017

Following a time of quiet optimism with prices holding steady, the mood on the grain markets started to change in mid-March. While the Western European market was holding steady, grain prices in overseas started to crumble. Since the beginning of the month, May wheat in the USA rose and fell by as much as 10 $, depending on weather reports from the wheat growing areas and successes in winning export tenders of purchasing countries. On 17 March May wheat was traded for 160 $/t in Chicago. US maize also showed price fluctuations of 10 $/t with an average price of 144 $/t; following the South American record harvest it still has to find its course.

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February 2017

The worldwide record harvest with further increasing stores has lost its terrifying grip. Both on the American continent and in Europe, prices on the stock exchanges and the regional markets are again rising slightly. Since the beginning of the year, March wheat has increased by 15 $/t to 164 $/t in Chicago and by 5 €/t to 172 €/t in Paris. Regional markets are following the prices at the leading stock exchanges.

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January 2017

While the wheat price in the eastern Rye Belt is moving laterally, prices on the rye market there are rising. Once more the varying regional supply situation confirms the principle that "supply and demand determine the price". As it has not been profitable, rye growing has been limited in Russia and the Ukraine in recent years and this has lead to scarce supply for the rye mills in some regions.

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(Dr. Reimer Mohr, Hanse Agro GmbH)

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